The collaboration of Disney/ABC and Apple announced this week is already being discussed on terms of how it could disrupt traditional broadcast revenue models. If a TV episode is available the day after its broadcast, via iTunes, then what'll happen to those lucrative DVD and syndication deals?
My guess? Those DVD and syndication deals will continue to be lucrative, and so will this new Download-On-Demand model.
We are not only voracious consumers of fresh content, we are also as a species reliably nostalgic. The retail shelfmasters will run out of space for Seinfeld Season 2 DVDs as large-scale demand peters out. Syndicators will fickly abandon All In The Family reruns for the Everybody Loves Raymond, leaving All In The Family fans in the lurch.
But ONLINE is FOREVER when you subscribe to the Long Tail theory.
A wise man once told me, "Used to be that paper was for archiving and online was for the here-and-now; it's switched: we now use paper to address the moment (print-outs for a meeting), but we archive everything online."
Same will happen with DVDs and online. Eventually ALL content will be ONLINE and ON-DEMAND at ALL TIMES. Why? Because there is a market for EVERYTHING.
And you'll be able to carry all of it in your backpocket, bro.