The collaboration of Disney/ABC and Apple announced this week is already being discussed on terms of how it could disrupt traditional broadcast revenue models. If a TV episode is available the day after its broadcast, via iTunes, then what'll happen to those lucrative DVD and syndication deals?
My guess? Those DVD and syndication deals will continue to be lucrative, and so will this new Download-On-Demand model.
We are not only voracious consumers of fresh content, we are also as a species reliably nostalgic. The retail shelfmasters will run out of space for Seinfeld Season 2 DVDs as large-scale demand peters out. Syndicators will fickly abandon All In The Family reruns for the Everybody Loves Raymond, leaving All In The Family fans in the lurch.
But ONLINE is FOREVER when you subscribe to the Long Tail theory.
A wise man once told me, "Used to be that paper was for archiving and online was for the here-and-now; it's switched: we now use paper to address the moment (print-outs for a meeting), but we archive everything online."
Same will happen with DVDs and online. Eventually ALL content will be ONLINE and ON-DEMAND at ALL TIMES. Why? Because there is a market for EVERYTHING.
And you'll be able to carry all of it in your backpocket, bro.
4th Quarter Blues
I hate the 4th quarter. Most agency execs do. In fact, I've spoken to a few agency veeps and CEOs in recent weeks, and invariably one of us would whine: "I hate the 4th quarter" and everyone else would nod, sagely & knowingly.
Loyalty flies out the window in 4Q.
The 4th quarter is when clients start wondering, "What else is out there?" They start to wonder about budgets - budgets spent and budgets to-come. They start picking up the phone when competitive agencies ask for a get-to-know-you cup o' joe.
It doesn't matter how much the client likes you. It doesn't matter how good a job you've done. The age-old truism, "Variety is the spice of life" rears its head in the 4th quarter.
This is the season of the wandering eye.
We have a client with whom we've worked for 8 years. It's been a superb relationship. By the client's own admission, 2005 was the best year yet. In fact, the worldwide tour (70-countries!) that we pulled off - seamlessly, and without a single legitimate news hook, by the way - led several internal executives at the client company to suggest that Summer 2005 represented the best PR effort in the company's 20+ year history.
But, it's the 4th quarter. So, we're "under review."
I am working in tandem with another agency CEO to participate in this particular review. We have a friendly co-opetition: sometimes we work together, sometimes we compete. He asked me the tough question: "Can we win this? It's tough for the incumbent to win." I agreed and went about explaining, defending, strategizing, etc. We're moving forward. End of story? Nope: two weeks later, one of HIS long-term, ostensibly happy clients asked SHIFT to participate in an agency review. I called this agency CEO to ask him if he's planning to participate; after all, "It's tough for the incumbent to win, eh?"
He just sighed, quietly, into the phone receiver. "Man, I hate the 4th quarter," he said.
Loyalty flies out the window in 4Q.
The 4th quarter is when clients start wondering, "What else is out there?" They start to wonder about budgets - budgets spent and budgets to-come. They start picking up the phone when competitive agencies ask for a get-to-know-you cup o' joe.
It doesn't matter how much the client likes you. It doesn't matter how good a job you've done. The age-old truism, "Variety is the spice of life" rears its head in the 4th quarter.
This is the season of the wandering eye.
We have a client with whom we've worked for 8 years. It's been a superb relationship. By the client's own admission, 2005 was the best year yet. In fact, the worldwide tour (70-countries!) that we pulled off - seamlessly, and without a single legitimate news hook, by the way - led several internal executives at the client company to suggest that Summer 2005 represented the best PR effort in the company's 20+ year history.
But, it's the 4th quarter. So, we're "under review."
I am working in tandem with another agency CEO to participate in this particular review. We have a friendly co-opetition: sometimes we work together, sometimes we compete. He asked me the tough question: "Can we win this? It's tough for the incumbent to win." I agreed and went about explaining, defending, strategizing, etc. We're moving forward. End of story? Nope: two weeks later, one of HIS long-term, ostensibly happy clients asked SHIFT to participate in an agency review. I called this agency CEO to ask him if he's planning to participate; after all, "It's tough for the incumbent to win, eh?"
He just sighed, quietly, into the phone receiver. "Man, I hate the 4th quarter," he said.
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